Library mayoral poll is eerily accurate

November 4, 2015

DISCLAIMER: this post is older than one year and may not be up to date.

Watch out, Nate Silver: The Nashua Public Library’s mayoral penny poll predicted the results of the November 3 election with uncanny accuracy.

To wit:

Penny poll:

Jim Donchess: 57.6%
Chris Williams: 42.4%

Real election:

Donchess: 56.4%
Williams: 43.6%

In September and October, library customers could throw their loose change into a jar for the candidate of their choice. The totals were $45.83 for Jim Donchess and $33.69 for Chris Williams.

All proceeds from the poll benefit the Friends of the Library, so everyone wins.

How reliable is this poll?

Since 2004, Nashua Public Library presidential-election penny polls have been (somewhat) predictive of election results:

In 2012 and 2008, donations for Barack Obama beat out those for Mitt Romney and John McCain. In 2004, John Kerry won the penny poll, and, well . . . he lost–but he did carry New Hampshire in the real election. However, none of the past polls mirrored actual vote totals as closely as this year’s.